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With the baseball season having passed the 100-game mark, BetMGM and other top sportsbooks have established who is most likely to reach the playoffs and the World Series for this season.
Placing MLB bets this time of year strips some of the value the preseason or early season offers. Yet, that doesn’t make it a bad time to still win money against the sportsbooks.
Advantages of Waiting Until This Late in the Season
Before any baseball season, there is a lot of clutter to sift through. In any given year, there are 12 to 15 teams that have a legitimate chance to win their division. On top of that, there could be another three or four teams that have the potential to contend for a division crown, which you have to account for.
At the same time, if you’re looking into MVP candidates, Cy Young winners, or home run champions, you know the usual suspects to start a season, however, there are always a few more players that could surprise.
By waiting until this point of the season, you have all the information you need to make astute wagers. The fluff has been removed and all the candidates are front and center. Now you have to determine who you want and the best way to try and beat the betting odds.
Picking Teams to Win Divisions Pennants and the World Series
Baseball is like most major sports, sometimes the best team wins, but as often as not, the hottest team will win a league pennant or World Series.
By waiting until possibly the end of August or the middle of September, you can spot a team that has put it all together and can win various wagers.
The most recent to get hot at the right time was the 2021 Atlanta Braves. Heavily favored to win the NL East, on July 31 they had an awful 52-54 record. The Braves went on to win the division, finishing 17 games over .500 the last two months and that carried over into the postseason when they were crowned champions.
Find teams that have played a variety of opponents, not just losing clubs over at least three weeks or longer, and are getting results in pitching, batting, and the bullpen.
Seeking value on wagers is always the best option, but winning still matters.
Choosing Players Who Can Win Various Awards
In most cases, the odds are accurate once you reach this point of the season. The longer you wait the harder to find value on longer shots because you run out of games to catch up on a home run title or alter the narrative on someone winning the MVP for example.
Instead, focus on tighter races where two or three players are closely grouped by the odds. In this scenario, you might have a player that has led a category all season but has slid some since the All-Star.
He’s now facing increased competition and you could find a player or pitcher that has gotten scalding hot, yet has more value-laden odds who is making a push and has the media buzz to change public opinion and win the title or award.
Being Patient Can Pay Off for Postseason Triumphs
It is not wrong and it actually makes sense to wait to choose teams to win pennants and the World Series.
The playing field is leveled, you know how each team finished the season and you can break down the pitching matchups and other useful intangibles.
That’s not to say this makes finding clubs to win series any easier because upsets invariably happen with a home-field advantage not as important in comparable teams, nevertheless, having as many resources at your fingertips can give you an edge.
