The Green Bay Packers have lost three straight games to go 3-4 through seven. Now they’ll take on a 5-1 Buffalo Bills team on the road. Can the Packers find a way to upset the Bills on Sunday Night Football?
Sunday, October 30, 2022 – 08:20 PM EDT at Highmark Stadium
What You Should Know
The Green Bay Packers will look to end a three-game losing streak on Sunday Night against one of the NFL’s best Buffalo Bills.
The Packers have back-to-back-to-back losses to the New York Giants, New York Jets, and Washington Commanders. It certainly won’t get any easier on Sunday night against the Bills.
On the other hand, the Bills are 5-1 on the year, winning four of their last five games. The Bills have a loss to Miami earlier this season but rebounded nicely with three straight wins including wins over the Ravens and Chiefs on the road.
When this game was scheduled, there was excitement about Josh Allen of the Bills going up against Aaron Rodgers on the Packers. Now, the excitement isn’t really there but we’ve still got a game to watch on Sunday night.
When the Packers Have the Ball
The Packers have scored just 18.3 points per game this season while averaging under 350 yards per game. In the grand scheme of things, the Packers haven’t been terrible offensively, but they’re not converting. They’re dropping passes, and the run block has been pretty weak for the Packers.
Aaron Rodgers still has 11 touchdown passes to just 3 interceptions. He just doesn’t have any reliable pass-catchers outside of Allen Lazard. Lazard has 4 touchdowns on 26 receptions for 340 yards this season.
What to Expect Against the Bills
Buffalo has been a little weak against the run defensively. I know they’ve allowed just 76.2 yards per game on the ground. But the reality is that the Bills are usually always leading, so other teams have to throw the ball when situations call for it.
But as I acknowledged, the run block hasn’t been good for the Packers despite Green Bay rostering two really good running backs in A.J. Dillon and Aaron Jones.
The Bills have a terrific pass rush and have played very well in coverage. Don’t expect Green Bay to have a huge day offensively in this one.
When the Bills Have the Ball
Josh Allen has anchored the Bills’ offense to 29.3 points per game while averaging nearly 450 yards of offense.
Allen personally has 17 touchdowns and 4 interceptions on the year. He’s found Stefon Diggs six times in the endzone and has thrown 49 completions to Diggs for 656 yards. They’ve got one of the best connections in football.
Allen has also led the team in rushing, with 47 carries for 257 yards and two more touchdowns.
What to Expect Against the Packers
The Packers have struggled badly against the run, allowing nearly 140 yards per game on the ground. However, in the passing game, the secondary and pass rush has played well, They’ve allowed just 183.1 yards per game in the air behind a terrific pass rush and solid coverage unit.
The Bills’ offensive line hasn’t been great in pass protection. The Packers will get through that offensive line, but eventually, Josh Allen will escape and make plays down the field, whether that’s rushing or throwing.
The Packers have struggled with tackling this season, and when Allen is in the open field scrambling, they’ll have just as much of a hard time.
Prediction and Pick
The Packers have allowed at least 23 points in each of their last three games. They’ve scored no more than 22 points in either of the three games. The defense hasn’t been atrocious but the offense hasn’t helped out much at all.
The Bills will ultimately have more success offensively against Green Bay’s defense than Green Bay’s offense will against Buffalo’s defense.
Taking the Bills at -10.5 is a bit rough. I never enjoy taking teams to win by double-digits. But at home, the Bills should be prepared and ready to go. Allen will scramble his way out of trouble and make plays down the field against Green Bay.
Rodgers is clearly not capable of doing the same right now. He’s got a lot of young receivers that are still learning and improving. There’s been a ton of dropped passes and just bad playmaking from the entire offense.
And we know that the Packers’ defense can’t cover the Bills for 10 seconds while Allen escapes pressure. So I’ll take the Bills -10.5 in this spot, at home.
NFL Pick: Bills -10.5 (-110) at FanDuel