The Top 5 OddsTrader NFL Computer Picks for Week 11

Dak Prescott Dallas Cowboys NFL player
Dak Prescott #4 of the Dallas Cowboys celebrates a touchdown against the Green Bay Packers during a game at Lambeau Field on November 13, 2022. Stacy Revere/Getty Images/AFP

With another good schedule for Week 11 in the NFL, we used the OddsTrader BetStation app to find the best computer-generated picks for this week’s games. 

Download the free app from your device’s app store to access specific stats for each game, information on previous matchups as well as the line history, injury news or the weather forecast. 

We ranked the top five picks (spreads or totals) from the OddsTrader app for Week 11 in the NFL, including which online sportsbook is offering the best price. 

5. Ravens Back in Action as Heavy Favorites vs. Panthers 

Our first top pick of Week 11 is the biggest spread this week with the Baltimore Ravens a 13-point home favorite against the Carolina Panthers with a total of 41.5 points.

The Panthers are starting Baker Mayfield again after an injury to P.J. Walker last week. Can Mayfield keep it close with an old division rival? 

Carolina Panthers vs. Baltimore Ravens

Sunday, November 20, 2022 – 01:00 PM EST at M&T Bank Stadium

Now that the Eagles had their first bad performance of the season against Washington, the Ravens are the only team to hold a double-digit lead in every game. Unfortunately, they failed to hold onto three of them, but the team is 6-3, fresh off a bye week, and they have the easiest remaining schedule. 

However, a 13-point spread is hard to cover for this team with the way it allows points in the fourth quarter this year. Carolina may not be having a good season, but this team usually keeps it close. Even when Mayfield was struggling early in the season, the Panthers only lost one game by more than 13 points with him and that was the one where he was injured against the 49ers. 

Mayfield is 3-5 against the Ravens when he was in Cleveland, and only two of those eight games were losses by more than 13 points.

He also has four of his top five passing yardage games in the NFL against Baltimore where he passed for over 340 yards. He won’t do that in this offense, but he is not an easy pick to get blown out despite ranking last in QB rating. 

Our Betting Pick

Since Mayfield last made a start for the Panthers, they fired Matt Rhule and traded Christian McCaffrey. They have won two of the last four games and nearly had a third in Atlanta, if not for a missed extra point after an excessive celebration penalty on D.J. Moore

The Ravens should, without a doubt, win this game at home but we like the Panthers to keep it close enough for a cover.  

OddsTrader NFL Final Score Prediction: Ravens 26 – Panthers 20 

OddsTrader NFL Total Pick: Panthers +13.5 (-105) at SBK

4. Could Eagles Slip Up Again in Indy? 

The undefeated talk is over in Philadelphia after the 8-0 Eagles lost on Monday night against Washington. But there is an undefeated coach in this game as Colts interim coach Jeff Saturday is looking to go to 2-0 with another upset win after beating the Raiders on the road last week. 

The Colts are a 7-point home underdog with a total of 44 points. 

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Indianapolis Colts

Sunday, November 20, 2022 – 01:00 PM EST at Lucas Oil Stadium

This should be a fun game to see how the Eagles handle their first real adversity of the season. They lost the final three quarters to Washington and were terrible on third down on defense and at protecting the ball after doubling their turnover count on the season.  

Tight end Dallas Goedert injured his shoulder and is out, but the Eagles still have A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. Brown was held to 7 yards on one catch after exiting the game briefly with a limp. We’ll see if that has lingering effects on him as it was by far his worst game of the season. 

The Colts protected Matt Ryan well against the Raiders with only one sack allowed. If they can do that again and get Jonathan Taylor rolling as he did, then this is the best the Colts could look on offense all season.

Our Betting Pick 

We also know the Eagles are a front-running team that doesn’t score many points late in games. Ryan has already led the Colts on five different fourth-quarter comebacks (four wins and a tie) this year. This could be another upset in the making and one heck of a story for Jeff Saturday if he pulls this one off. 

Many sportsbooks have this line at 6.5 for the Eagles, but PointsBet is offering a great price (-107) at a crucial extra half point with Eagles -7. That is our best pick for this game. 

OddsTrader NFL Final Score Prediction: Eagles 22 – Colts 20   

OddsTrader NFL Spread Pick: Colts +7 (-107) at PointsBet

3. Washington Is Taylor Heinicke’s Team Now 

After upsetting the undefeated Eagles, the Washington Commanders are sticking with Taylor Heinicke at quarterback despite Carson Wentz being cleared to return. Heinicke has not been great, but he is better than Wentz at avoiding terrible plays, and the team has seemed to rally around him with wins over the Packers, Colts, and Eagles. 

The Commanders are a 3.5-point road favorite in Houston with a total of 41 points. 

Washington Commanders vs. Houston Texans 

Sunday, November 20, 2022 – 01:00 PM EST at NRG Stadium 

Wouldn’t it be typical NFL for the Commanders to beat the team with the best record and lose to the team with the worst record in the same week? It could happen, because we know the Commanders are not going to live in third-and-short as they did in Philadelphia where they started 12-of-15 on third down as part of that upset. 

By the way, that means they finished the game 0-of-6 on third down and needed the Eagles to fumble twice in the fourth quarter to pull off that win.  

Heinicke deserves the job over Wentz but he’s not exactly lighting it up, and the Houston pass defense is respectable. We know Houston’s biggest issue is the run defense. Just look at the dominant stat lines produced by just about every running back they have faced.

Our Betting Pick

Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson may be licking their chops, but the Commanders are 29th in yards per carry as they are not a great run-blocking line. Gibson (3.6) and Robinson (3.3) are both under 4.0 yards per carry.  

The Texans can hang tough in this one, and we know both teams don’t score many points. That is why the under should be the best value pick in this game.  

OddsTrader NFL Final Score Prediction: Commanders 20 – Texans 17 

OddsTrader NFL Total Pick: Under 40.5 (-106) at FanDuel

2. Cowboys to Close out the Vikings Again? 

Week 10’s two dramatic overtime games saw the Vikings come out as improbable winners in Buffalo and the Cowboys as improbable losers in Green Bay. Minnesota made a 17-point comeback and the Cowboys blew a 14-point lead in the fourth quarter. 

Some are probably wondering why the Cowboys are a 1.5-point favorite with a 6-3 record over the 8-1 Vikings, but the Cowboys are one of the best spread bets in the NFL. Just not last Sunday. But since 2021, Dallas is 19-8 ATS rankings, the only team covering over 70% of the time.  

Dallas Cowboys vs. Minnesota Vikings

Sunday, November 20, 2022 – 04:25 PM EST at U.S. Bank Stadium

The Vikings have been living on close games all season. They are 7-0 in close games and 5-0 at fourth-quarter comebacks. They have three comebacks in the fourth quarter after trailing by 10 points in the last seven games. They had three such comebacks in the last 11 seasons combined. 

But in the last two seasons, the Cowboys have had a late game-winning drive in Minnesota with Andy Dalton beating them in 2020 and Cooper Rush did it last year in his first start. It would be bad for Dak Prescott to also not shine in this one for Mike McCarthy. The Cowboys have been rolling offensively with Dak back and Tony Pollard taking over as the top runner, but the offense had some hiccups in Green Bay that they need to fix. 

Our Betting Pick

The fact is the Cowboys have reason to believe they are the better offense and defense compared to Minnesota. The Vikings keep pulling all these close games out despite having no real track record of success in such games in past seasons. Kirk Cousins is the quintessential .500 quarterback, yet the team is 8-1 this year despite him not having better statistics than we are used to seeing. 

The Vikings can become the first team in NFL history to win eight straight games by 1-to-8 points. We don’t see the Vikings winning by multiple possessions, so we agree with the OddsTrader prediction that the Cowboys will hand the Vikings their first close loss of the season. 

OddsTrader NFL Final Score Prediction: Cowboys 24 – Vikings 22  

OddsTrader NFL Total Pick: Cowboys -1.5 (-107) at PointsBet

1. Bill Belichick Continues Mastery of the Jets 

If the playoffs started today, all four AFC East teams would be in. But this is a big game for both teams as the New York Jets try to avoid another sweep at the hands of the New England Patriots and Bill Belichick.  

The Patriots are a 3.5-point favorite at home with a total of 38 points.  

New York Jets vs. New England Patriots

Sunday, November 20, 2022 – 01:00 PM EST at Gillette Stadium

One thing is certain: Belichick does not need Tom Brady to keep beating the Jets. The Patriots have fallen behind the Bills and Dolphins in the division and they keep losing to those teams with their flashy new quarterbacks, but beating the Jets is still in Belichick’s wheelhouse even if the Patriots have the least talented roster in the division. 

Belichick is 5-0 against the Jets since 2020. These teams just met in Week 8 and the Patriots frustrated young quarterback Zach Wilson in his first game without Breece Hall, the rookie running back who was an emerging star before he tore his ACL. 

Our Betting Pick

That is going to limit how good this offense is the rest of the way, but Wilson’s three picks and baffling decision-making are a no-no when facing a Belichick defense that loves to pounce on those mistakes. This is how the Patriots can cruise to a win over the Jets even if Mac Jones does nothing special in the passing game.

The Patriots also have a solid duo of running backs in Rhamondre Stevenson and Damien Harris who should be feeling rested after the bye week. 

Both teams had the bye week to prepare for this big one, but we will still trust Belichick to get it done at home against the Jets.  

OddsTrader NFL Final Score Prediction: Patriots 25 – Jets 19  

OddsTrader NFL Spread Pick: Patriots -3.5 (+104) at SBK 

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