The NFL Week 10 schedule features the Packers seeking their first win in Pittsburgh since Bart Starr played, the 49ers trying to end a 3-game losing streak in Jacksonville, and the Cowboys hoping to not suffer the most embarrassing upset of the season (again) when they face the Giants as a 16-point favorite.
We make our best bets for Week 10 below, and you can always find these bets at OddsTrader’s top sportsbooks.
Picks Summary
- Packers-Steelers 1st Half Under 16.5 Points (+130) at Bet365
- 49ers Under 24.5 Points (-120) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Cowboys to Score in Every Quarter vs. Giants (+150) at Bet365
The Steelers and Packers Are Allergic to Fast Starts
The scoreboard operator could have light work when the Green Bay Packers visit the Pittsburgh Steelers this Sunday afternoon. The game’s total is 39 points, but we want to focus on the 1st half and tease that line to under 16.5 points for these struggling offenses.
Green Bay Packers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Sunday, November 12, 2023 – 01:00 PM ET at Acrisure Stadium
Jordan Loves Throwing into Tight Windows
Points should be at a premium when the only quarterbacks who throw into a tight window on over 20% of their pass attempts meet. Jordan Love and Kenny Pickett are not doing a great job in replacing the legends who came before them, Aaron Rodgers and Ben Roethlisberger.
Pittsburgh’s struggles under offensive coordinator Matt Canada are well documented, but this is new for Matt LaFleur and the Packers, who have not scored more than 20 points in their last 5 games, tied for the worst streak in Green Bay since 1992.
But the 1st half in particular has been bad for Green Bay. In fact, the Packers have scored a league-low 36 points in the 1st half through 8 games this season. Even the Giants (42) have more points than that, and they were held scoreless in their first 6 quarters this season. The only good news is the Packers have allowed 91 1st half-points, which ranks 14th.
The Steelers aren’t much better on offense out of the gates. Pittsburgh has scored 55 points in the 1st half, tied with the Jets for the 5th-fewest points through 8 games this season. The Steelers have allowed 98 points in the 1st half.
Matt Canada’s Vantage Point
One of the more comical stories from Week 9 was how Matt Canada, after 2.5 years on the job, decided he would coach the team’s game from the sideline instead of sitting in his normal spot in the booth.
The result was an opening-drive touchdown that looked uncharacteristically strong for the Steelers and Pickett. But the rest of the half looked more on brand with the Steelers, only adding a field goal to get to 10 points.
That was better than the 9-3 deficit the Steelers had at halftime in back-to-back games against the Rams and Jaguars prior to last week’s win over Tennessee. The Steelers also trailed 10-3 against Baltimore and 16-0 against Houston in the 1st half of their games before this recent run.
You can stick Canada anywhere in the stadium. The results are going to be the same.
The Pick
We know Pittsburgh’s offense is bad, but the Packers may actually be the key to making this prop hit. None of the last 4 Green Bay games had more than 13 points at halftime. As long as we can avoid a pick-6 from a defense riding this score up artificially, this should be another defensive battle with both teams looking to play their best in the 4th quarter.
NFL Pick: 1st Half Under 16.5 Points (+130) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Jaguars Can Limit the 49ers Too
Remember when San Francisco was 5-0 and scored at least 30 points in every game? That feels like a long time ago. Since then, the 49ers are 0-3 and have been held to 17 points in each loss. They had a bye week to prepare for this one, but so did the Jaguars, who have the longest active winning streak at 5 games.
The 49ers are a 3-point road favorite, but we are looking at their team scoring total (over/under 24.5 points).
San Francisco 49ers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, November 12, 2023 – 01:00 PM ET at EverBank Stadium
Jacksonville’s Defense Is Solid
The Jaguars allow their share of yards this season, but they do a great job of creating turnovers (league-high 18) and they limit points. The Texans (37) are the only team to score more than 24 points against Jacksonville this year.
It’s also not like the Jaguars have played a poor schedule of opposing offenses like some teams this year with gaudy defensive stats:
- The Jaguars held Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, who welcomed back Travis Kelce in Week 2, to 17 points.
- The Bills only scored 20 points in London, and most of that was in the 4th quarter.
- The Colts are the only team to score 20 points in every game this season, and they barely got to that mark against the Jaguars twice with 20 and 21 points in those games.
- The Jaguars held the Saints to 24 points in the Superdome at night.
Jacksonville excels at situational defense this season. The Jaguars rank No. 5 on 3rd down and No. 10 in the red zone. Josh Allen is having an excellent season with 9.0 sacks.
San Francisco’s Struggles
The biggest question mark the 49ers had coming into this season was what if Brock Purdy was a fluke last year? What if he hasn’t recovered well from the elbow injury in the NFC Championship Game? What if defenses catch up to him now that the team moved Trey Lance and Jimmy Garoppolo out of town?
For 5 weeks, everything was fine. Purdy was dealing, his statistics were as good or better than last year, and he played his best game against the Cowboys in front of a national audience, dismantling a top defense with 4 touchdown passes.
But things have not gone well for Purdy since. He has 3 touchdowns and 5 interceptions in the 3 losses since the Dallas win. He had the team in position to win the game in Cleveland despite a poor day, but rookie kicker Jake Moody missed from 41 yards away. That was at least encouraging that Purdy was able to put a bad game behind him and move the offense, which lost a few key players to injury, into range for a field goal that should have won the game.
But Purdy made more mistakes with interceptions in Minnesota, a weak defense, and he was reportedly concussed. He somehow cleared that protocol in a few days to play against the Bengals, but he again threw some bad picks at the worst moments in that 31-17 loss.
The 49ers are hoping to get left tackle Trent Williams and wide receiver Deebo Samuel back for this game after injuries they had before the bye week. But the 49ers still had enough weapons to win all of these games, and Purdy and the defense looked shakier than they did during his historic winning streak to begin his career.
This is another big road test for him, and the bad news is the Jaguars have 11 interceptions, tied for the 2nd most among all defenses this year. They have been making quarterbacks pay for their mistakes, and defenses finally have been making Purdy pay for his after he got away with a lot of risky throws as a rookie.
The Pick
It is reasonable that the 49ers play more polished after having a bye week to regroup and get healthy after this losing streak. But this is also a cross-country trip for an early start time in Jacksonville, and the Jaguars also had a bye week to prepare for this game.
The Jaguars have been playing better football than the 49ers for the last month, and their brand is not conducive for turning this into some shootout. The 49ers are understandably still the favorite on the road because of how talented this roster is, but Doug Pederson is a coach who does a fantastic job as an underdog in his career going back to Philadelphia.
Trust the Jaguars to keep the score down and hold the 49ers under 24.5 points in this one, a highlight game in the Week 10 schedule.
NFL Pick: 49ers Under 24.5 Points (-120) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Division Games Are Weird but We’ll Trust Dallas
You can get some goofy results with division games, especially in the NFC East. The Commanders scored 31 points in both games against the Eagles this year, but the Giants held them to 7 points in a dud of a game.
The Giants started this season with an embarrassing 40-0 loss at home to Dallas. Since then, things have not gotten much better for New York, and after serious injuries to Daniel Jones and Tyrod Taylor, they are lining up to start rookie quarterback Tommy DeVito in this game, and possibly for the rest of the season if he stays healthy.
This is why the spread is 16 points, which is the largest in any game this season. But Dallas has already lost as a 13-point favorite in Arizona, and the Giants have already covered as 13-point underdogs against the Dolphins and 15-point underdogs in Buffalo. In fact, they nearly beat the Bills before they were stopped at the 1-yard line on the final play.
Last season, the Cowboys almost lost as a 17-point favorite against Houston before a late game-winning touchdown drive led by Dak Prescott. Huge spreads are something we like to avoid, especially in division games where the teams know each other well.
We are instead looking at a game prop where Dallas will score in every quarter.
New York Giants vs. Dallas Cowboys
Sunday, November 12, 2023 – 04:25 PM ET at AT&T Stadium
Cowboys vs. Scrubs
Say what you will about the coaching job Mike McCarthy has done in Dallas, but he usually gets the team to show up for games like this. Since 2021, the Cowboys are 11-1 ATS in games following a loss, which is the best spread record in the league. In that same time, Dallas is 10-4 ATS in division games, the 3rd-best record in the NFL.
But this is a big spread to cover. The better idea is to take the Cowboys to score in every quarter, which is something they are fond of doing in games against weak opponents.
In Week 1 against the Giants, the Cowboys were up 16-0 after a quarter thanks to a blocked field goal return touchdown and a pick-6 by the defense. But the Cowboys also scored 10 points in the 2nd quarter, and 7 points on a touchdown in each of the last 2 quarters to win 40-0.
Even when you include the 28-16 upset loss in Arizona, the Cowboys scored in every quarter in each of their first 4 games this season. That’s 16 straight quarters with a score. That streak ended in San Francisco when Dallas was held scoreless in both the 1st and 4th quarters on their way to that 42-10 blowout loss.
In playing an overmatched Rams team in Week 8, the Cowboys again scored in every quarter for the 5th time this season in that 43-20 win. The Cowboys failed to score in the 3rd quarter in Philadelphia in their tough 28-23 loss, but the Eagles are a much tougher opponent than the Giants.
If you give the Cowboys a scrub opponent, they have a solid chance of scoring in every quarter.
The Giants Are a Major Scrub This Year
We mentioned the Cowboys scored in every quarter against the Giants in Week 1. The Giants also allowed the 49ers and Seahawks to score in every quarter of those games, so the better teams usually can do this against the Giants this year.
One notable exception is Buffalo, which struggled with no points at home through 3 quarters before Josh Allen threw a pair of touchdowns in the final quarter in a 14-9 win.
The biggest concern about a pick like this is a game like Miami’s 31-16 win over the Giants where the Dolphins did not score in the 4th quarter mainly because they didn’t have to. The game was decided.
But you don’t have to be a top offense to make the Giants look bad. Just last week, the Raiders scored in every quarter on their way to a 30-6 win over the Giants. It was the first game for interim coach Antonio Pierce, and this was a Vegas team that had not scored 20 offensive points in any game this season. Yet there they were with 30 points with a rookie quarterback making only his 2nd start.
The Pick
The Cowboys have no excuse to not score a big number in this matchup. Prescott is 11-0 against the Giants since the 2017 season. We’ll take our chances with a prop at these odds that Dallas has already hit in 5-of-8 games rather than sweat out another huge spread in a division game.
NFL Pick: Cowboys to Score in Every Quarter (+150) at Bet365
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