The annual Hall of Fame game kicks off the NFL’s preseason slate with the Jacksonville Jaguars and Las Vegas Raiders meeting at the Tom Benson Hall of Fame Stadium in Canton, Ohio.
Let’s take a look at what both teams bring to the table and see if we can start our year of NFL picks off in a winning fashion
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Thursday, August 04, 2022 – 08:00 PM EDT at Tom Benson Hall of Fame Stadium
- Spread: Jaguars -½ (-110)
- Total: 30 ½ (-110)
Betting Preview
The Jaguars enter this matchup coming off of a 3-14 season, tied with the Lions for the worst straight-up record in football. But perennially poor teams can sometimes have a bit of value at the betting windows because the masses put them on auto-fade. Not the case with the Jags as they were nothing but money-burners in 2021, ending with a 5-12 ATS mark.
Their opponents on Thursday night, the Las Vegas Raiders, dealt with their fair share of obstacles last season but ended with a respectable 10-7 record which propelled them into the postseason. Their run would end abruptly at the hands of the eventual AFC champion Cincinnati Bengals where they bowed 26-19 in the Queen City.
Despite a solid 2021 campaign Las Vegas was 8-10 against the spread but will have a shiny new toy for Derek Carr in the form of the elite Davante Adams. However, it is unlikely we see either Carr or Adams for any prolonged length of time as this is a meaningless preseason game where staying healthy trumps walking away a winner.
Coaching Debuts
This is not the first rodeo for new head coaches Josh McDaniels and Doug Pederson as both have sat in the big chair at different franchises. McDaniels left New England as a decorated offensive coordinator for the thin air of Mile High over a decade ago but lasted only a season and a half before the Broncos let him go.
Doug Pederson was the head man in Philadelphia for four years before he was unceremoniously released in January of 2021. Last February, the Jaguars hired Pederson after extinguishing the dumpster fire created by legendary college coach Urban Meyer. It can’t get much worse for the Jags this year after Meyer’s tumultuous, albeit brief, reign.
What Are the Odds?
According to the NFL odds, the Raiders opened as two-point favorites but that line has dropped to as low as Las Vegas +1 ½ at a few of the best online sportsbooks. Like the point spread, the total has also dropped, but up to 3 points to where it stands at 30 ½ as of this writing. Many of the pundits are pointing to a series of trends on both sides supporting this game being played low.
Side Trends
- Jaguars are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
- Jaguars are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog.
Total Trends
- Under is 4-0 in the Raiders’ last 4 games as a favorite.
- Under is 4-1 in the Raiders’ last 5 games overall.
- Under is 4-1 in the Raiders’ last 5 vs. AFC.
- Under is 13-3 in the Jaguars’ last 16 games as an underdog.
- Under is 12-4 in the Jaguars’ last 16 games overall.
- Under is 5-2 in the Jaguars’ last 7 Thursday games.
Wanna Make a Bet?
The masses will do what they normally do and bet this exhibition game as though it was a Week 9 contest in November. They will convince themselves they know much more about these teams than they actually do.
The truth is nobody knows how long the starters will play nor how the backups will perform.
Remember, there are some players who will compete for a roster spot on Thursday night who could very well be selling cars by Week 1. It’s very difficult to gauge these exhibition games but what we do know is that, due to the truncated season, the starters are likely to see more time in the preseason openers than they did when the exhibition season was four games.
Betting Analysis
Here is my take on this game. The Jaguars need this more than the Raiders do. It is not beyond the realm of possibility that Jags’ owner, Shad Kahn, has told Pederson to release the hounds and start with a win to wash off the funk of last season. Based on where the line has gone, there is clearly plenty of action on the Jaguars, having moved a full two points at some online shops.
We are going with the sharps on this one, yet, we can still find a line that will give Jacksonville a slight head start if we take our business to PointsBet where the Jags are just -½ (-110). If you have to bet on this game, then go against the grain by taking the real “underdog” and over the small total.
The Jaguars might not win the Super Bowl but they might just get a W to start off the preseason!
HOF Betting Picks
NFL Pick: Jaguars -½ (-110) at PointsBet
NFL Pick: Over 30 ½ (-110) at BetMGM
