Top 3 NBA Player Props for May 6: Don’t Bring Me Down, Strus

Kyle Lowry Max Strus Miami Heat
Max Strus #31 and Kyle Lowry #7 of the Miami Heat react during the first quarter of the game against the Dallas Mavericks. Megan Briggs/Getty Images/AFP

Top NBA Props

  • Max Strus Over 2.5 3-Pointers (+110) at BetMGM
  • Kevin Love Under 5.5 Rebounds (+115) at Unibet
  • Jalen Brunson Over 2.5 Turnovers (+120) at Bet365

This might be the craziest NBA playoffs we’ve had in quite a while. And we’re only a couple of games into this second-round series between those two bitter and ancient rivals (the late ‘90s being ancient now), the New York Knicks and Miami Heat.

These games haven’t been easy to pin down, but there’s always some good betting value to be had with those tasty NBA player props – including the following three that we’ve scoped out for Game 3 of that Knicks-Heat series this Saturday.

New York Knicks vs. Miami Heat

Saturday, May 6, 2023 – 03:30 PM EDT at Kaseya Center

Does Max Strus Ever Miss?

Every time you turn around, there’s Max Strus hitting a clutch three for Miami. He doesn’t hit all of them, but 35.0% during the regular season was decent enough, and Strus has upped that rate to 41.4% during these playoffs, more closely matching last year’s breakthrough performance (41.0%).

We’re taking a bit of a chance with Strus, though. He shot 3-for-7 from downtown during Game 2 against the Knicks; our first NBA prop has Strus once again going Over 2.5 threes, for a potential payout of +110 on the basketball lines as we go to press.

The thing is, Game 2 was the first time this postseason that Strus had made more than two 3-pointers:

  • Game 1 vs. Milwaukee: 2-for-4
  • Game 2: 1-for-4
  • Game 3: 2-for-4
  • Game 4: 0-for-1
  • Game 5: 2-for-4
  • Game 1 vs. New York: 2-for-5

Strus also topped the 30-minute mark in three of those games against the Bucks, but the max Max for this series was 25 minutes flat in Game 2.

The projections at FantasyData have Strus down for 2.28 made threes this Saturday in 26 minutes of work. Perhaps he’ll see a bit more floor time in Game 3 as the Heat adjusts to New York’s height advantage by bombing away from behind the arc.

NBA Pick: Max Strus Over 2.5 3-Pointers (+110) at BetMGM

How Many Rebounds Will Kevin Love Get?

Fewer than six, we hope. Our second player prop has Love going Under 5.5 rebounds for a +115 payout, and this one definitely has legs, with FantasyData pegging Love for 4.85 boards this Saturday.

As seamlessly as Love has fit into Miami’s rotation, and as much as they’ve needed his rebounding, Love is still one of the smallest bigs in this matchup at 6-foot-8. He’s bite-size compared to New York’s 7-foot centers, Mitch Robinson and Isaiah Hartenstein.

For that matter, having to battle Julius Randle, Obi Toppin and even Josh Hart for rebounds is no picnic. Here are Love’s results from Miami’s seven playoff games:

  • Game 1 vs. Milwaukee: 8
  • Game 2: 3
  • Game 3: 7
  • Game 4: 7
  • Game 5: 12
  • Game 1 vs. New York: 5
  • Game 2: 6

Jimmy Butler missed Tuesday’s second game against the Knicks with a sprained ankle, and is reportedly going to give it a go for Game 3 after this extended layoff. His return might help unclog Miami’s offense, which would in turn lead to fewer missed shots and fewer rebounding opportunities for Love.

NBA Pick: Kevin Love Under 5.5 Rebounds (+115) at Unibet

How Good Is Jalen Brunson?

Outstanding – at least when it comes to offense. New York’s marquee offseason signing has developed into a quality scorer, but his defense leaves a lot to be desired, and Brunson doesn’t have the surest hands in the league, either.

Not that he’s coughing the ball up at an alarming rate – Brunson’s 9.5% turnover rate falls into the 78th percentile at Dunks and Threes. However, on a per-game basis, that’s still 2.1 turnovers, and that was during the regular season. Here’s how Brunson’s playoffs have gone:

  • Game 1 vs. Cleveland: 1
  • Game 2: 2
  • Game 3: 3
  • Game 4: 4
  • Game 5: 2
  • Game 1 vs. Miami: 5
  • Game 2: 1

FantasyData projects Brunson for 2.43 turnovers this Saturday, and we have him going Over 2.5 with +120 vigorish attached.

Once again, this is where Jimmy Butler’s return can help us: Butler (1.8 steals per game) is one of the league’s peskiest players, creating havoc and forcing all manner of turnovers.

It’s hardly a coincidence that Brunson’s playoff high of five turnovers was in Game 1 versus Miami, with Butler on the floor. This was after committing a combined nine turnovers in three regular-season games against the Heat. Bet accordingly.

NBA Pick: Jalen Brunson Over 2.5 Turnovers (+120) at Bet365 is your sports betting command center. Read featured betting strategy compiled from a panel of leading sports betting experts.

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