The latest midterm election betting odds make grim reading for the Democrats. Political betting sites suggest that the Republicans are now the overwhelming favorites to seize a majority in both chambers.
OddsTrader Betting Edge
• The two main betting markets for the 2022 midterm election involve which party will gain a majority in the House and how many seats will the Republicans earn in the Senate?
• The Democrats currently hold a slender majority in both chambers but dire for them.
• The US Senate and the US House of Representatives are two separate chambers of Congress. They must work together to create laws, but there are some significant differences
• Georgia is seen as a key battleground. Democrat Raphael Warnock defeated incumbent Republican Kelly Loeffler and is looking for another term against Republican Herschel Walker.
Americans will go to the polls in November to elect all members of the House of Representatives and one-third of the Senate.
These are the current US political betting odds from Ladbrokes, a sister site to BetMGM:
- Republicans to Win the Most Seats in the House of Representatives (-800)
- Democrats to Win the Most Seats in the House of Representatives (+450)
The Republicans are also priced at just -275 to win more than 50 seats in the Senate, which would give them control of both chambers. The odds on them securing under 50 seats are now +450, which should lead the GOP to exude confidence as the midterms approach.
How Can I Bet on the 2022 Midterm Elections?
You will only find midterm election betting odds at legal sportsbooks in countries such as the UK, Ireland and Australia. US licensed sportsbooks are not currently permitted to offer US political betting odds. Sports betting is now legal in 33 states, plus the District of Columbia, but no state has passed a bill permitting US politics odds.
BetMGM believes political betting will be legal in time for the 2028 presidential election. Its sister sites, Ladbrokes and Coral, offer a wealth of midterm election betting odds in Europe, so BetMGM could easily launch political betting if given the green light.
The same is true of FanDuel, as its European sister sites – such as Betfair and Paddy Power – offer US political betting odds. Bet365 and 888 Sport, which have operations in the United States, also offer political betting in other parts of the world.
DraftKings and FanDuel ran free-to-enter contests on the 2020 presidential election. At DraftKings sportsbook, customers could make a series of predictions about the election, and players with the most correct guesses shared $100,000 in site credit. Similar pools could be launched in the build-up to the midterms.
Another option is PredictIt, which offers a watered-down version of political betting. It works in a similar way to financial spread betting, as users bid to buy “shares” low and sell high once the crowd realizes they were correct.
What Are the Betting Odds for the 2022 Midterm Elections?
There are two main betting markets for the 2022 Midterm election:
- Which party will gain a majority in the House?
- How many seats will the Republicans earn in the Senate?
Ladbrokes is offering -800 on the Republicans to control the House following the midterms. Meanwhile, the 2022 House odds are +450 on the Democrats retaining their majority.
The situation looks even bleaker for the Democrats if you visit William Hill, which Caesars Sportsbook is in the process of selling to 888. William Hill is offering just -1200 on a Republican majority and +700 on a Democrat majority in its 2022 House odds.
These are the odds to win the Senate 2022 at political betting sites:
- Republicans Over 50 Seats (-275)
- Republicans Exactly 50 Seats (+450)
- Republicans Under 50 Seats (+450)
All in all, the situation looks dire for the Democrats. You can also bet on which party will control the Senate in key swing states, which we will explore further down this midterm election betting odds guide.
How Do the Midterm Elections Work?
Voters across the country will head to the ballot boxes on November 8 to elect members of Congress:
- Members of the House of Representatives only serve for two years, so every seat in the House is up for re-election in November.
- Every two years, a third of the Senate faces re-election. Thirty-five seats are up for grabs in 2022.
The Senate and the House work together to create the laws that govern the country. The midterms are, therefore, very important. The Democrats currently hold a slender majority in both chambers, making it easier for them to pass laws, but the midterm election betting odds suggest those majorities will be wiped out.
The president’s party generally loses seats in the midterms. Since 1974, the party that the president represents has lost an average of 23 seats. However, political forecasters expect the Democrats to suffer an even worse performance this year, against a backdrop of soaring inflation and fears for the economy.
These are the latest findings from Gallup’s survey:
- 41% of Americans approve of President Biden.
- 18% approve of the job Congress is doing.
- 16% are satisfied with the situation in the US.
- 14% are positive about the economy and 46% are negative.
Gallup describes these indicators as “very unfavorable” for the Democrats.
What Is the Difference Between the US Senate and the US House of Representatives?
The US Senate and the US House of Representatives are two separate chambers of Congress. They must work together to create laws, but there are some significant differences:
- The Senate features 100 members.
Regardless of size, each state has two Senators, giving California and Wyoming equal sway. Senators are elected for six-year terms, so only a third face re-election in the midterms.
- The House has 435 members, representing the various districts across the country.
That means California, the most populous state, has 53 representatives, whereas the smallest state – Wyoming – has just one. Representatives are elected for two-year terms, so they are all up for re-election.
Which State Races Impact the Control of the US Senate?
These are the seven states that will impact the odds to win the Senate in 2022:
- New Hampshire
- North Carolina
These are swing states that could vote either way. Polls suggest that North Carolina leans Democratic, while New Hampshire is leaning Democratic and the other five are a toss-up.
Republicans currently control 50 seats, so they only need to net one state to win control of the Senate.
What Are the Odds for the Georgia Senate?
Georgia is seen as a key battleground. Democrat Raphael Warnock defeated incumbent Republican Kelly Loeffler in a January 2021 runoff in the Peach State. That handed the Democratic caucus 50 seats, which is an effective majority, as Vice President Kamala Harris casts the tie-breaking votes.
Warnock was only elected to serve the remainder of the late Johnny Isakson’s term, which ends in January, so he has had to go back on the campaign trail ahead of the upcoming midterms. He is up against Republican Herschel Walker, and these are the betting odds for the Georgia Senate:
- Republican -138
- Democrat +100
That suggests Warnock will have to work hard to win over more voters in the next few months while at the same time hoping that things improve at a national level for the Democrats.
What Are the Odds for the Arizona, Nevada, and Pennsylvania Senate?
The Sun Belt states of Arizona and Nevada took center stage during the 2020 presidential election, along with Pennsylvania. These will be key swing states yet again at the midterms.
These are the current US political betting odds:
|State||Republican Betting Odds||Democrat Betting Odds|
Who Controls the House of Representatives?
The Democrats currently control the House of Representatives:
- Democrat: 220
- Republican: 210
- Vacant: 5
That gives the Democrats a 51.3% voting share, representing a slim majority. A party must claim 218 seats to secure a majority, so the Republicans need to flip eight seats at the midterms. The midterm election betting odds displayed on this page suggest they can achieve that goal.
In 19 midterm elections since the end of World War II, the president’s party has only improved on its share of the popular vote in the House. That was in 2002 when George W. Bush remained popular. In the average midterm election since 1946, the president’s party has suffered an average loss of 26 House seats.
Which State Districts Impact the Control of the House of Representatives?
These are some of the critical districts that currently appear to be a toss-up, according to the Cook Partisan Voter Index:
|California||22, 27, 45|
|Michigan||2, 3, 7, 8|
|Nevada||1, 3, 4|
|New York||3, 18, 19, 22|
|Ohio||1, 9, 13|
The midterm outlook for House Democrats suggests that members of some districts that won by 10-15 points in 2020 are now in danger of losing their seats. The Cook Political Report forecasts a gain of 20-35 seats for the Republicans.
Are There Odds for the Speaker of the House and the Senate Majority Leader’s Positions?
You will not currently find any 2022 House odds or Senate odds for the speaker and majority leader positions.
However, PredictIt is running a market on who will be the Speaker in the next Congress. The candidates with the highest “yes price” are deemed to have the strongest chance of becoming the speaker, and these are the current prices:
- Kevin McCarthy (72¢)
- Steve Scalise (7¢)
- Nancy Pelosi (5¢)
- Donald Trump (4¢)
- Elise Stefanik (3¢)
- Hakeem Jeffries (3¢)
- Jim Jordan (3¢)
- Jim Banks (2¢)
McCarthy was the House Majority Leader under speakers John Boehner and Paul Ryan from 2014 to 2019, and he has served as the House Minority Leader since 2019.
It promises to be a fraught few months for the Democrats as they battle to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat in the midterms.
The midterm election betting odds are liable to change as November 8 looms larger on the horizon, but right now the Republicans appear poised to break the Democrats’ fragile control over both chambers.
Midterm Election Betting Odds FAQs
Can I legally bet on the 2022 midterm elections?
You cannot legally bet on the midterm elections in the United States. Political betting is not yet legal in any state, so you will not find 2022 House odds or odds to win the Senate 2022.
However, you may find fun contests at certain sites, and PredictIt offers a watered-down version of political betting.
Can I legally bet on US politics?
You can legally bet on US politics in certain countries, but not in the United States. Sports betting is now widely available, but no states have passed laws permitting betting sites to offer US politics odds.
Where can I legally bet on the 2022 midterm elections?
You can legally bet on the 2022 midterm elections in countries such as the UK, Ireland and Australia. Sportsbooks in the United States cannot currently offer US politics odds, so anyone seeking betting odds US House of Representatives or odds to win the Senate 2022 will be disappointed.
However, you may find that sites like FanDuel and DraftKings offer contests on the elections, providing the chance to win free bet credits.
Where can I legally bet on US politics?
You will only find US political betting odds overseas. Sportsbooks in the USA are not currently allowed to provide Republican betting odds and Democrat betting odds, but they believe that could change in time for the 2028 presidential election.
How are the winners of the 2022 US midterm elections determined?
The party that gains a majority in the House of Representatives will be deemed the winner. There are 435 seats in the House, so a party needs 218 to secure a majority. Only 35 of the 100 seats in the Senate are up for re-election in November, but the Republicans would justifiably claim victory if they earned a majority.
What is a swing state?
Certain states may vote either way in an election, making them important battlegrounds for the Republicans and Democrats. They are known as swing states, and they include
How is the US Congress divided?
The US Congress is divided into two chambers – the Senate and the House of Representatives. There are 100 members of the Senate – two for each state – along with 435 members of the House, representing each district across the country.